Business should edge up over the next couple of years. Retail construction is projected to grow 1.9% in 2019 and 0.4% in 2020, according to a new consensus forecast from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Healthy gains in the industrial and institutional building sectors have bolstered growth projections for nonresidential construction overall in 2019; however, the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel—consisting of leading economic forecasters—suggests that a broader economic downturn may materialize over the next 12 to 24 months. Learn more about this Consensus Construction Forecast online.
“Though the economy has been performing well recently, trends in business confidence scores are red flags that suggest a slowdown is likely for 2020,” says AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “These signals may be temporary responses to negative short-term conditions, but historically they have preceded a more widespread downturn.”
For retail, the pundits’ opinions vary widely, undermining the challenges inherent in predicting retail construction. Moody’s Economy.com is the most bullish of the forecasters, prognosticating an 8.1% spike in 2019 followed by 4.4% the next year. FMI, Wells Fargo Securities, and ConstructConnect foresee increases for the retail sector this year, while IHS Economics, Markstein Advisors, Associated Builders and Contractors, Dodge Data & Analytics see slight dips this year.